More than a century ago, T.E. Lawrence operated in an environment where the British had access to maps, military intelligence, communications networks and reporting from across the Middle East. What Lawrence brought to the effort, however, was something much harder to capture in a traditional intelligence report: an understanding of what was happening at the local level.

Lawrence had spent considerable time traveling and working in the region before the First World War. During the Arab Revolt, his role brought him into close contact with Arab leaders and tribes and required him to understand not only geography and military movements, but also relationships, motivations, grievances and local dynamics.

Knowing where Ottoman forces were positioned was important. Understanding the environment in which they were operating, and what the people closest to that environment knew, could be just as valuable.

Today, we might call some of that ground truth.

The difference between information and understanding

Modern organizations have access to an extraordinary amount of information. Corporate leaders can draw upon satellite imagery, geopolitical intelligence, news and social media, economic indicators, supply-chain data, proprietary datasets and increasingly sophisticated AI-enabled analytical tools.

A leader sitting thousands of miles away can have visibility into an overseas market that would have been unimaginable even a few decades ago.

Yet there is still an important distinction between having information about a place and understanding what is happening there.

A risk platform may indicate that conditions in a particular location remain stable, while employees on the ground have begun changing their routines or leaving work earlier. A supply-chain system may show a factory as operational, while trucks have stopped leaving the facility. Economic indicators may show gradual inflation, while residents in one community are experiencing a sudden increase in the price or scarcity of basic goods. Satellite imagery may identify increased activity around a facility without explaining what is causing it.

None of those sources are necessarily wrong. Each is simply showing a different part of the picture.

Sometimes the first signal is on the ground

The first indication that an environment is changing may be something relatively mundane: longer lines at fuel stations, stores closing earlier than usual, changes in traffic patterns, increased security around a facility, workers changing their commuting habits or people beginning to gather in an area that is normally quiet.

Individually, those observations may not mean very much. Collected across a population, geography or period of time, however, they can begin to show that something has changed before that change becomes obvious through traditional reporting.

This is where ground truth becomes particularly valuable. It doesn't replace established intelligence sources, data platforms or analytical tools. It adds another layer of context to them.

And that principle extends well beyond security.

A security leader may want to understand whether conditions around an overseas facility are deteriorating. A supply-chain executive may need to know whether a supplier is actually operating or whether goods are moving through a particular port or border crossing. A commercial leader may want to know whether a product is on the shelf, what a competitor is charging or how consumers are responding to a new offering. A corporate affairs team may want to understand how attitudes toward the company or its industry are changing in a particular community.

The questions are different, but the underlying challenge is remarkably similar: someone closer to the situation may know something that headquarters does not.

Bringing ground truth into the modern intelligence picture

Technology has dramatically improved our ability to understand distant environments, but it has not eliminated the value of proximity.

Geospatial intelligence can help us see physical changes. Open-source information can help us understand what is being reported. Datasets can provide additional context. AI can help connect signals across enormous volumes of information.

Ground-level observation adds another dimension by helping organizations understand what people are seeing, experiencing and, in some cases, thinking.

Today, organizations also have new ways to close the distance between what their data is telling them and what people are experiencing on the ground. Technologies such as Premise, for example, make it possible to draw on observations, validation and sentiment from millions of contributors around the world.

Used alongside traditional intelligence, geospatial information and other data sources, that kind of ground-level perspective can add important context. Perhaps more importantly, it can provide a way to go looking for an answer when the information an organization needs does not already exist.

That distinction matters.

Most intelligence systems are designed to help us make sense of available information. But sometimes the most important question is one for which the necessary data hasn't yet been collected.

In those situations, the ability to ask people on the ground what they are seeing, experiencing or observing can become another valuable source of decision support.

The lesson is still relevant

Lawrence obviously operated in a very different world, and historical analogies should only be taken so far. But there is a useful principle in his experience.

Effective decision making depends not simply on accumulating more information, but on understanding the environment in which that information exists. Sometimes that requires satellite imagery. Sometimes it requires sophisticated analytics. Sometimes it requires open-source intelligence.

And sometimes it requires getting closer to the people and places where events are unfolding.

More than a century later, the tools have changed considerably.

The importance of ground truth has not.

If you could ask millions of people on the ground one question about your operations, your business or your risks, what would you ask?

If you're interested in exploring how ground truth could complement the information your organization already relies on, contact Culmen International for more details on Premise and other capabilities.